Which industries are
getting squeezed?
The Margin Squeeze Index™ tracks input costs, output prices, and demand signals across nine manufacturing industries. Built from 51 economic series and refreshed monthly.
Most margin post-mortems blame the wrong thing
When gross margin drops, the internal explanation is usually discounting, or mix, or a bad quarter in one region. Sometimes it is. Just as often the whole industry moved and the company did not reprice fast enough — which is a completely different fix.
The MSI separates the two. It is a single 0–100 score per industry, built from public data, that tells you whether the pressure you are feeling is yours alone or shared by everyone you compete with.
Five bands turn a score into a decision
Every industry lands in one of five bands each month. The band, not the decimal, is what changes the decision.
Expansion
75 – 100
Output prices are running ahead of input costs. Conditions favor margin expansion — the moment to hold price and invest in share.
Favorable
55 – 75
Costs are behaving and demand is holding. Pass-through is achievable without much friction.
Neutral
40 – 55
Inputs and outputs are moving together. Margin outcomes come down to execution, not the market.
Squeeze
20 – 40
Input costs are outrunning what the market will absorb. Discount governance and surcharge timing start to decide the quarter.
Crisis
0 – 20
Severe compression. Cost pass-through is failing and volume is not compensating. This calls for structural action, not tactical discounting.
Exhibit — MSI™ pressure bands, fixed methodology
Nine industries, scored every month
Each industry carries its own input weighting. Steel matters to metals and automotive; natural gas matters to chemicals and food. The index respects that.
What moves the index
Four families of indicators do most of the month-to-month work. Current readings and the top movers of the month ship in the brief, not on this page.
Metals
Hot-rolled coil, aluminum, and fabricated metal PPI series — the dominant input line for metals, automotive, and industrial manufacturing.
Energy
Henry Hub natural gas and WTI crude. Feeds chemicals, plastics, food processing, and every freight lane you buy.
Demand
ISM Manufacturing PMI, new orders, and industrial production. Tells you whether the market will absorb a price increase at all.
Building inputs
Lumber, gypsum, cement, and resin series — the cost stack behind building products and packaging.
How the index is built
A transparent, public-data methodology. No black box, no proprietary survey you cannot check.
What we measure
The MSI captures the gap between what manufacturers pay for inputs and what they can charge for outputs. Below 40, margins are being squeezed. Above 60, conditions favor expansion.
Data sources
51 economic indicators from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Indices and Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). Each industry carries its own input weighting, derived from its cost structure.
Update schedule
Refreshed monthly when BLS releases new PPI data, typically in the second week. Historical coverage runs from January 2024 forward, so trend and inflection are visible, not just level.
Go deeper
The MSI is the entry point. Three ways to take it further.
Industry briefs
The full one-page brief for your industry — MCI and MSI trends, input cost drivers, peer benchmarks, and the actions that follow.
Competitive intelligence
See how competitors are actually responding to margin pressure: price index, spec-normalized comparison, and channel waterfall.
For chambers & trade orgs
ChamberPulse — the same data engine, white-labeled for your members under your own brand.
See what this means for your margins
The MSI tells you what is happening in your industry. A free 15-minute Margin Scan tells you where you sit against 1,231 scored companies — and a discovery call tells you what is happening inside your own P&L.